U.S. Jobs Market Lost Pace in February,
Conference Board Says
일자리 동향 지수에 따르면 미국 노동시장은 2월에 약간 약화되었는데,
이는 일자리를 구하기가 점점 더 어려워지고 있음을 반영합니다.
The U.S. labor market weakened a little in February, reflecting that jobs were becoming harder to come by, according to a jobs trends index.
The Conference Board’s employment trends index ticked down to 112.29 in February from a downwardly revised 113.18 in January, the private-research group said Monday, flipping two months of improvement.
“While the index is still elevated compared to its prepandemic level and the economy has continued to add jobs through February 2024, the labor market is likely to cool off, with modest job gains expected through 3Q and 4Q of 2024,” Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board, said.
The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment that aggregates eight indicators. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, while turning points in the index suggest a change in the number of jobs is likely to occur in the short term.
2024년 3월까지 경제가 일자리를 계속 추가하면서 지수가 여전히 높지만 노동시장은 냉각될 가능성이 높다
U.S. Jobs Market Lost Pace in February, Conference Board Says - WSJ
Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio Warned of an Economic Disaster
That Never Came. What Now?
In mid-2022, JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon warned that a “hurricane” was about to hit the U.S. economy. 2022년 중반, JP모건의 제이미 다이먼 최고경영자(CEO)는 "허리케인"이 미국 경제를 강타할 것이라고 경고했다.
The experts were way off. They underestimated the impact of government stimulus and the resilience of consumers and businesses. And they were too skeptical of the Federal Reserve’s ability to push inflation lower without sparking a recession. The economy continues to grow at a steady clip. Inflation is getting closer to the Fed’s goal of 2%, unemployment remains near a half-century low and the stock market is near record highs.
“I was bearish on the economy,” Dalio said in an interview. “I got it wrong.”
“I got it wrong because, ordinarily, when you raise interest rates it curtails private-sector demand and asset prices and slows things down, but that didn’t happen,” Dalio said. “There was a historic transfer of wealth: The balance sheets of the private sector improved a lot and the balance sheet of the government deteriorated a lot.”
2022년부터 연준은 23차례 금리인상을 했으나, 예상과 다르게 금리인상에 따른 경기침체가 오지 않았다.
경제전문가들은 작년엔 61%였던 경제침체 확률을 39%정도의 확률로 낮추며
미 경제 '연착륙' 가능성을 제시하고 있다.
Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio Warned of an Economic Disaster That Never Came. What Now? - WSJ